NBA player prop picks, odds, free best bets: Model includes LeBron James for NBA Playoffs on April 18
The 2026 NBA Playoffs officially begin on Saturday with the play-in tournament complete and a four-game slate throughout the day. Many of the league’s top stars will be in action, including Nikola Jokic, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson, Kevin Durant and LeBron James, leaving plenty of star power as options for NBA prop betting on Saturday. With the postseason comes increased minutes and usage rates for many of the league’s best, and with that, the SportsLine Projection Model is backing some of the league’s biggest stars to have some significant scoring totals. The model is backing both Brunson and Durant to go Over their scoring totals for Saturday NBA player props.
However, the model is also fading one of the league’s biggest stars of all-time, backing James’ Under 25.5 points for Lakers vs. Rockets at 8:30 p.m. ET when online sports betting Saturday NBA player prop bets. James averaged 22 points in three contests against the Rockets this season, failing to even reach 20 points in two of the three games. Before locking in Saturday NBA prop picks and other NBA bets on betting sites like FanDuel or DraftKings, be sure to check out top picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 23-9 roll (72%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
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Top NBA player prop picks on Saturday
- Jalen Brunson, Knicks, Over 27.5 points
- Kevin Durant, Rockets, Over 24.5 points
- LeBron James, Lakers, Under 25.5 points
Jalen Brunson, Knicks, Over 27.5 points
Brunson was 10th in the league in scoring at 26 points per game this season, but he went Over this total in two of his last three games entering the playoffs. However, a significant reason the model favors this pick stems from Brunson’s playoff history in New York. Brunson averaged 29.4 ppg in 18 playoff games last year after averaging 32.4 ppg (13 games) and 27.8 ppg (11 games) the two years before during the playoffs. He went Over this total in 11 of 18 playoff games last year, including six of nine games at Madison Square Garden. The model projects Brunson to reach 30 points again Saturday, projecting the star guard for 30.3 points.
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Kevin Durant, Rockets, Over 24.5 points
Durant was tied with Brunson at 26 ppg this season, and he went Over this total in three of his final four regular-season games. Durant is playing in his first playoff game in his first season with the Rockets, but the future Hall of Famer has been an elite postseason scorer throughout his career. Durant averages 29.3 points in 170 playoff games over his career. He’s averaged more than 26 ppg in each of his 13 postseason appearances. The model expects that to continue, projecting Durant for 27.1 points.
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LeBron James, Lakers, Under 25.5 points
The Lakers are going to need the 41-year-old LeBron James to be Superman to advance past the Rockets, with Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique) out to at least begin the series. That puts a significant amount of the scoring pressure on James though, and that means the Rockets can dedicate even more of their defensive game plan toward frustrating the elder statesman. The Rockets had the No. 4 scoring defense in the NBA this season, allowing 110 points per game, and James went Under this total in two of three games against the Rockets. James averaged 22 points against Houston and 20.9 ppg overall this season. The model projects James for 22.2 points
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